UK spectrum facing a 'perfect storm' in 2014

Mobile operators are facing a ‘perfect storm’ of challenges in 2014 according to a forecast from Real Wireless. The consultancy is warning that carriers have yet to grasp the scale of technological and commercial challenges that will start to hit in 2014, with many completely lacking a strategy to cope.

The analysis was taken from a landmark manifesto, launched today, looking at every aspect of the wireless industry in 2014 and beyond, from 5G to small cells, spectrum, backhaul, M2M and more. These issues affect not just operators but regulators, vendors - and all of those that use wireless technology, from consumers to transport operators, stadium owners or enterprises.

“We’ve taken a look at every aspect of the wireless industry, from spectrum to technology, the economics, the locations people are using wireless and the commercial opportunities. All included we’ve found that mobile operators are facing a perfect storm of challenges starting from this year. The next few years pose an unprecedented challenge, and few operators are preparing for it,” said Professor Simon Saunders, director of technology and co-founder of Real Wireless.

“While there’s never an easy time to be an operator, technology challenges are increasing in complexity at the same time as financial pressures bite. More CapEx is needed to support data traffic growth, improve coverage and build out 4G, but revenue and ARPU are under strain - indeed, in Europe the industry has moved ex-growth.”

5G is coming faster than many appreciate, with vendors demonstrating technology and standards activity progressing. However, as complex as spectrum has been for LTE, with UEs having multiple product SCUs to complicate roaming, it will be even harder for 5G. There will be increasing tension between mobile operators, satellite operators, broadcast TV and other spectrum users. Few operators or regulators are prepared for these issues, which will come to the fore at WRC15.

Having 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G all running, all interacting and all needing spectrum will be a technical nightmare and financially insupportable - yet few carriers have planned for how to switch off any of their technologies - while growing use of M2M on 2G complicates this. 2G will be largely unaffected this year, but pressures to eventually phase it out will grow progressively. Meanwhile, other operators will make serious plans to phase out 3G in favour of 4G.

The Real Wireless manifesto, How wireless will - or should - evolve, is available to download here.